The reasons behind a sustained population loss in Tennessee’s most populous county, and home to Memphis, are clear. But Shelby County’s top position among population-losing counties may be short-lived even though further declines are projected.

When a Tennessee community appears on a U.S. Census Bureau top 10 list, it’s usually because it’s one of the fastest growing in the country. So, what should be made of news that in 2024, Shelby County’s estimated population decrease of -3,379 people was the most of any county in the nation?

A little context is necessary to better understand the numbers that were released on March 13th.

Shelby County was one of six counties in West Tennessee that lost population in 2024 and was among 11 statewide that reported declines. It stands out from a group of largely smaller rural Tennessee counties that reported much more modest population losses and from its larger urban counterparts in Middle and East Tennessee that have managed strong gains this decade.

The southwest Tennessee county was one of four large counties located along or near the Mississippi River that topped the Bureau’s list of counties with the largest numeric declines between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024. The others included St. Louis, Missouri, Hinds County (Jackson), MS and Orleans Parish (New Orleans), LA (Table 1). This points to a larger pattern of population loss, industry shifts and agricultural declines along the length of the corridor that are not just isolated to some parts of West Tennessee.

Migration-Related Population Losses

Last year’s loss was the latest in a series of declines. Since 2013, population decreases have been reported for 11 out of 12 years in Shelby County. Those losses have grown larger this decade compared to last. Before 2020, the average decrease was about 1,000 people per year. Since 2020, the average annual loss has more than tripled, reaching 4,800 people over the last four years. The county’s largest one-year decline came in 2021 when a loss of 6,533 people was reported. That year, large counties across the country shed population during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Figure 1).

Figure 1.

The 2024 decrease is directly attributable to a 12,440-person net domestic migration loss – more people moving out of the county to other U.S. locations than moved in. This was offset by a natural increase, with 3,600 more births than deaths. And further bolstered by a 5,341-person increase from international migration.

This net domestic migration component has been a drag on the county’s population for more than four decades, according to a review of Census Bureau statistics. Data from 1980 to 1990 showed a net migration loss of more than 24,000 residents over the decade. More detailed data covering the period from 1990 to 2024 shows that net domestic migration decreases occurred every year.¹ That means for at least the better part of four decades, people left Shelby County in greater numbers for other U.S. locations than moved in (Figure 2).

Figure 2.

Throughout that time, strong birth numbers have largely kept Shelby County’s annual population changes in the plus column. However, this trend has recently shifted due to declining fertility rates that have pulled back the county’s traditionally high levels of natural increase. Additionally, the magnitude of net domestic migration decreases has grown significantly, reaching new highs in 2023 and 2024.

With the exception of a contraction in the international migration component, which had grown to record levels over the last three years, recent trends are expected to continue. This could signal even larger losses on the horizon than current projections indicate.

The Nation’s Smallest Largest Population Loss in Nearly a Decade

Is a loss of 3,379 people a lot?

Anytime a county leads the nation in population loss, it’s important to understand the cause and magnitude of the issue. While the underlying net domestic migration trend is concerning, it’s also worth noting that Shelby County’s 2024 decrease is relatively small compared to other counties that topped the Census Bureau’s annual list in recent years.

The decrease barely registers when compared with the recent chart-topping losses in Los Angeles. The Southern California county has led the nation in numeric population decrease every year between 2018 and 2023. So far this decade, the nation’s most populous county shrank by over 260,000 people (2.6 percent). In fact, it is necessary to go back to 2015 to find a “largest” population loss that was smaller than Shelby County’s 2024 figure. In that year, Genesee County, Michigan (Flint) was estimated to have a 2,280-person one-year dip (Table 2).

There is a second, more technical aspect of this year’s population estimate vintage that should also be considered.

In December 2024, the Census Bureau announced that it had adjusted the estimated net international migration (NIM) totals for its Vintage 2024 release to better account for increased migrant flows. Those changes included similar revisions to figures for 2022 and 2023. That has resulted in an additional 1.8 million people being added to the country’s population from international locations for those two years. The 2024 figures show the NIM component of population grew to 2.79 million people and pushed the nation to its largest one-year population gain since 2001 (Table 3).

New county-level data released in March 2025 also reflect those changes and show that much of the gains were concentrated in the nation’s larger metros. In areas like New York, the District of Columbia and San Francisco, the increase was big enough to reverse population decreases earlier in the decade.

But among many of the nation’s largest counties, there were also instances where increases in net international migration offset sizeable net domestic migration decreases. In 2024, there were 19 U.S. counties that had a net domestic migration decline that was larger than Shelby County’s. All 19 also had NIM components that were larger than their domestic decrease. Those offsets went a long way toward keeping counties like L.A., Miami-Dade, Dallas, Harris (Houston) and Cook (Chicago) counties in the plus column in the 2024 estimates.

Figure 3.

International migration seems almost certain to recede when the Vintage 2025 estimates are released next December. If the domestic outflows continue in many of these large cities, it could put downward pressure on their annual population change figures. If that occurs, Shelby County should land much further down the list of numeric population decreases next year.

¹The 1980 to 1990 Intercensal Estimates report “Residual Change” as population change not attributed to natural change (births-deaths). In this context, residual change includes net domestic migration, net international migration, and other processing errors, which account for differences between the estimate and the true population value.