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Boyd Center Population Projections

Every two years, we produce population projections for Tennessee’s 95 counties. The data includes forecasted population, age, race/Hispanic ethnicity and sex for each county in the state.

Our population projections are developed by researchers at the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee and are available free of charge.

2018-2070 Projections

Released: October 22, 2019
Base Year: 2018
Projection years: 2019-2070

These new estimates rely on 2018 county-level population figures, along with corresponding births and deaths for the year, to produce projections for 2019 to 2070. This latest output utilizes a similar methodology as the 2016 projections. Differences between the two sets are attributable to the either revisions to the Census Bureau’s population estimates or to underlying changes in births rates, deaths rates or migration patterns.

Interactive Dashboard

Screen capture of the 2018 population projections dashboard interface

Explore the 2018-2070 county-level projections in an interactive web-based interface that includes key population indicators related to growth rates, age, race and ethnicity. For smaller devices, a mobile-optimized version with slightly less information is available as well.

Excel Workbook (posted 11/1/2019)
This file includes a series of interactive charts and tables providing easy access to county-level and Metropolitan Statistical Area projections. State and county-level breakdowns of age, sex and race/ethnicity are also included.

Raw projection output is provided along with a series of cross tabulations are including:

  • Population by county and year
  • Population by Metropolitan Statistical Area and year
  • Age by county and year
  • Sex by county and year
  • Race/ethnicity by county and year

GIS Data
County-level data has been compiled into formats compatible with major geographic information system software. Base-year estimates for 2018 and projection data in 5-year increment (2020 to 2070) are provided. Related fields descriptions and metadata can be previewed in ArcGIS Online.

View in ArcGIS Online
Users interested in accessing a REST endpoint or developing online maps using web feature service (WFS) can explore the 5-year, county-level data on ArcGIS Online.

2016-2070 Projections

Released September 26, 2017
Base Year: 2016
Projection years: 2017-2070

The 2016 Boyd Center projections incorporated a new methodology change. Prior to 2016, projections were produced for each single year of age. However, this demanded that 2010 decennial census data be used as the base since it was is the last year for which population by county, race, sex and single-year of age were produced. By switching to five-year age bands, we can use post-censal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for all years up to the current year. This enable more frequent updates which capture emerging trends in population changes, and use the most current year for our “launch year.”

Excel Workbook

2014-2064 Projections

Released August 27, 2015
Base Years: 2010-2014
Projection years: 2015-2064

Excel Workbook