Every two years, we publish population projections for Tennessee’s 95 counties. The data includes forecasted population, age, race/Hispanic ethnicity and sex for each county in the state.
Our population projections are developed by researchers at the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee and are available free of charge.
2022-2070 Projections
Base Year: 2022
Projection years: 2023-2070
Tennessee’s 2022 to 2070 population projections use population estimate data from the Boyd Center and the U.S. Census Bureau. The projection methodology used in this series closely matches that of prior years’ meaning differences are largely attributable to:
- Partial incorporation of data collected during the 2020 Census
- Population changes occurring between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2022
- Changes to the underlying rates of births, deaths and migration
2022-2070 Interactive Dashboard
Drill into detailed population data for the state, regions and counties using an interactive web-based interface. Key indicators related to population change, growth rates, age, race and ethnicity are included. Mobile device support is provided.
Downloads
State and County Summaries
These files provide state and county breakdowns of each area’s total projected population, as well as projections by demographic characteristic including age, sex, race and Hispanic ethnicity. Data for each year between 2022 and 2070 are included. These Excel spreadsheets have 4-tabs:
- Total population by year
- 5-year age group by county and year
- Sex by county and year
- Race/ethnicity by county and year
Raw Projection Output
Users requiring detailed access to the projection outputs can download Excel and CSV files containing a row for each demographic combination and for each year. The file layout document details the record structure and the codes used in the data.
2022-2070 5-Year Increment County-Level GIS Data
County-level data has been compiled into formats compatible with major geographic information system software. Base-year estimates for 2022 and projection data in 5-year increments for 2025 to 2070 are included. Fields descriptions and metadata can be previewed in ArcGIS Online.
Archived Projections
2020-2070 Projections
Base Year: 2020
Projection years: 2021-2070
The projections rely on 2000-2020 county-level population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, along with corresponding births and deaths for each year, to produce projections for 2021 to 2070. The 2020 projection methodology is similar to the approach used in 2016 and 2018. Differences between the three sets are attributable to revisions of the Census Bureau’s population estimates or to underlying changes in births rates, deaths rates or migration patterns.
2020-2070 Interactive Dashboard
Explore the 2020-2070 county-level projections in an interactive web-based interface that includes key population indicators related to growth rates, age, race and ethnicity. For smaller devices, a less detailed mobile-optimized version is served.
2020-2070 Excel Workbook
This file includes a series of interactive charts and tables providing easy access to county-level and Metropolitan Statistical Area projections. State and county-level breakdowns of age, sex and race/ethnicity are also included.
Raw projection output is provided along with a series of cross tabulations including:
- Population by county and year
- Population by Metropolitan Statistical Area and year
- Age by county and year
- Sex by county and year
- Race/ethnicity by county and year
2020-2070 5-Year Increment County-Level GIS Data
County-level data has been compiled into formats compatible with major geographic information system software. Base-year estimates for 2020 and projection data in 5-year increments for 2025 to 2070 included. Fields descriptions and metadata can be previewed in ArcGIS Online.
2018-2070 Projections
Base Year: 2018
Projection years: 2019-2070
The projections rely on 2000-2018 county-level population estimates, along with corresponding births and deaths for each year, to produce projections for 2019 to 2070. This latest output utilizes a methodology similar to the 2016 projections. Differences between the two sets are attributable to the either revisions to the Census Bureau’s population estimates or to underlying changes in births rates, deaths rates or migration patterns.
2018-2070 Interactive Dashboard
Explore the 2018-2070 county-level projections in an interactive web-based interface that includes key population indicators related to growth rates, age, race and ethnicity. For smaller devices, a less detailed mobile-optimized version is served.
2018-2070 Excel Workbook
This file includes a series of interactive charts and tables providing easy access to county-level and Metropolitan Statistical Area projections. State and county-level breakdowns of age, sex and race/ethnicity are also included.
Raw projection output is provided along with a series of cross tabulations including:
- Population by county and year
- Population by Metropolitan Statistical Area and year
- Age by county and year
- Sex by county and year
- Race/ethnicity by county and year
2018-2070 5-Year Increment County-Level GIS Data
County-level data has been compiled into formats compatible with major geographic information system software. Base-year estimates for 2018 and projection data in 5-year increments for 2020 to 2070 included. Fields descriptions and metadata can be previewed in ArcGIS Online.
2016-2070 Projections
Base Years: 2000-2016
Projection years: 2017-2070
The 2016 Boyd Center projections incorporated a new methodology change. Prior to 2016, projections were produced for each single year of age. However, this demanded that 2010 decennial census data be used as the base since it was is the last year for which population by county, race, sex and single-year of age were produced. By switching to five-year age bands, we can use post-censal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for all years up to the current year. This enable more frequent updates which capture emerging trends in population changes, and use the most current year for our “launch year.”
Excel Workbook
The workbook includes raw projection data as well county-level cross tabulations by age, race and sex. Interactive charts for population, age, race and sex can be viewed at the state and county-level.
Base Years: 2000-2010
Projection years: 2011-2064
Excel Workbook
The workbook includes raw projection data as well county-level cross tabulations by age, race and sex. Interactive charts for population, age, race and sex can be viewed at the state and county-level.
To the extent possible under law, Tennessee State Data Center has waived all copyright and related or neighboring rights to the Boyd Center Population Projection Series. This work is published from: United States.